Classic Mafia - Conclusion!

[Apocalipsis]

You read what I posted at the end of the previous game regarding uncertainty.

Also, I don't know what you're trying to say by quoting that prediction. Do you really think I would be so stupid as to post such a list if I were to be mafia (and mfc and Nave too)?

I do not want to protect Nave or Luti. Both deaths would give me information. Nave's death more than Luti's, actually, since he posted those lists. But at the same time, we would be risking more killing Nave, since Luti's always trolling.

[Ramond]

Yeah I can smell you getting nervous. Exactly, we would never expect a Mafia to actually post the list of Mafias so early.

[LutiChris]

we would be risking more killing Nave, since Luti's always trolling

If you noticed i kinda stopped doing that. In the sense that i am being more thoughtfully serious in my posts.

[Apocalipsis]

Yeah I can smell you getting nervous. Exactly, we would never expect a Mafia to actually post the list of Mafias so early.

Are you trying to "put pressure" on me? Because that's not gonna work, and it only makes you look suspicious, again. You change your vote from one player to the other, like you don't care who dies, as long as it's a citizen. I wouldn't risk lynching you yet, though.

If you noticed i kinda stopped doing that

I don't know. Put a serious list about your thoughts on each player, and I might reconsider changing my vote.

[Ramond]

You change your vote from one player to the other, like you don't care who dies, as long as it's a citizen.

One player is as good as the other. There's no real way to prove one's role.

[Apocalipsis]

Might as well vote randomly, then?

[empirefantasy]

voting bambori. he feels so free and vote so easy

[Apocalipsis]

My list (Click to View)

1. AmadisLFE - Citizen
2. Apocalipsis - Citizen
3. Bamboori
4. CosmicSarasa - Citizen
5. Darl - Citizen?
6. empirefantasy
7. Jernemies
8. LutiChris
9. mfc - Mafia Goon
10. Ramond
11. Rhino.Freak - Cop
12. Simoneon
13. TheNave
14. T.O.R.N.A.D.O - Citizen

If we assume that the roles were assigned at random, would it be correct to say that there are 23.08% chances of five citizens appearing on the top of the list?

(11/14)*(10/13)*(9/12)*(8/11)*(7/10) = 0.2308

Because from my point of view, and if I assume that Darl is innocent, that would mean that Bamboori has 76.92% chances of being mafia.

I know it may sound crazy to use this as a guide, but I implicitly use this probabilities to rule out suspects sometimes. For example, would you find it likely for all the mafias to be next to each other in this list (Jernemies, Luti and mfc; or Luti, mfc and Ramond)? I wouldn't.

I withdraw my vote from Luti for now.

Edit:

honestly this looks like you made this up on the fly and feels like what Ramond said was true.

If you find it reasonable, though, you should consider using this after I die and you see that I'm just a citizen.

[LutiChris]

Put a serious list about your thoughts on each player, and I might reconsider changing my vote.

honestly, i haven't really been keeping up with everyone's performance and i've just be focused about my own activity and the accusations hurdled at me. Yes, i know its selfish and un-townie like but i already established that coming into the game. However I am subject to change if i decide to get really serious towards the end of the game but eh...

I've only really been thinking about You, TheNave and simon... </3
At this point i'm starting to lose faith that thenave could be mafia ever since he voted for himself. It could be a smart mafia move but then again he's looking out for the group while i'm not that concerned.
I'm with simon on this one in where we don't really know if you are actually a townine or mafia because you always act this reasonable in every game. If people decide not to vote for me then i will probably vote for you. so watch out buttercup.

edit) you ninja'd me but my suspicions about you remain the same.
honestly this looks like you made this up on the fly and feels like what Ramond said was true.

(11/14)*(10/13)*(9/12)*(8/11)*(7/10) = 0.2308
Bamboori has 76.92% chances of being mafia.
I withdraw my vote from Luti for now.

edit2) what? i don't even know how you even came to that conclusion, can you please explain you sudden change of heart? okay okay... now i see darl but i don't really know what to make of this... ...eh no never mind im still confused.

For example, would you find it likely for all the mafias to be next to each other in this list (Jernemies, Luti and mfc; or Luti, mfc and Ramond)? I wouldn't

explain? because i haven't really been keeping track on jernemies or ramond
Okay, i'll give you that, its unlikely for all three of us to be mafias in that order but its not crazy for two mafia members from that line up to be paired next to each other.

V) yes i i just noticed that. I'm not really thinking clearly as i type this all on my phone

[Apocalipsis]

(chances of citizen in slot 1) * (chances of citizen in slot 2) * ... * (chances of citizen in slot 5)

I don't know if this is correct, honestly. That's why I asked.

Edit:

explain? because i haven't really been keeping track on jernemies or ramond

It's not because of the players, but their position in the list xD