RaMafia (round 1 - end)

[empirefantasy]

@apoc
if we dont kill anybody today, then during the night we will have one less townie and so on. chances for doc to save the target person are small, while sheriff chances to identify a mafia will be growing up. but lets see what other guys have to say.

[Ramond]

Good job Mafia, getting rid of a 1st time player to demotivate him from playing future games *clap*

You know, it seems like Apocalipsis has been to the murder scene pretty fast. A bit too quick for my tastes, I believe that he must be hiding something...

[STM1993]

Seriously though, what a dick move, killing off the newbie first and due to rules, no discussion on my end D:

[Apocalipsis]

@empirefantasy
As long as the Cop remains alive, the citizens benefit from a longer game.

@Ramond
Should I take that seriously? xD

@STM1993
I lol'd hard.

[Ramond]

Yes, mine was a serious accusation and I'd like to hear your version of how you entered the crime scene so fast. (As you can see, the vote is in bold, making it valid. For now.)

[Apocalipsis]

I don't know what do you mean with "entering the crime scene"... I saw Ariel's post, and I posted xD
Empirefantasy posted some minutes later, and you posted less than half an hour later.

[MangaD]

Well, at least they didn't got the Doctor/Cop.

I'll go with no-killing this time, because we have way more players than last round (less chances of getting mafias by sheer luck), more mafias than last round (they'll vote knowing each other) and we have a Cop.

Yes, we can say that we were very lucky actually. Considering that someone had to die, it is great that they only got a townie. Pity for STM1993 though... dying before having the chance to even participate, especially since it was his first game...

Okay, let's analyze the (dis)advantages of no-killing. If, hypothetically speaking, no one gets lynched this round, then it is certain that the mafia will get another free kill. We were lucky this time, who is to say that the Cop/Doctor won't be next?

However, if we try to guess who the mafia are and lynch someone, considering the sheer probabilities, our chance of getting one of the culprits is 3/11. Yes, not much indeed. However, we are not playing based on sheer probabilities, are we? We know that at least 2 mafias voted to kill STM1993 in order for the kill to have effect, so we can assume they were in accordance taking this decision. Now, who would decide to kill a guy that is just participating at this game for the first time? Honestly, I can think of many people who wouldn't do this, leaving the people which I don't know very well to be my primary suspects.

These people are:

• TheNave - Cunning guy, I've seen what you are capable of!
  
• Hellbalzer - No comment, you guys understand.
  
• AmadisLFE - I don't know you very well, no idea if you would do this or not.
  
• empirefantasy - Also don't know you that well.
  
• Apocalipsis - Keep reading to know why I suspect you.
  

See, judging just by 1 unjust kill and the little (or nothing) that I know you guys, I've narrowed my list of suspects to 5 people. So, to me, the probabilities of lynching a mafia guy are 3/5. Of course, this is my view and I can be very very wrong on this. Still, just wanting to prove that the probabilities of getting 1 mafia guy are not as low as you think.

Conclusion: Due to such a flawed logic from Apocalipsis, I vote to lynch Apocalipsis.

PS: If I die next night, please take into consideration the guys on my list! Thanks.

[Apocalipsis]

"It is certain that the mafia will get another free kill"? Regardless the result of day rounds, mafias will keep killing each night, unless Doc gets lucky or the game is over. So "another free kill" doesn't make any sense. In any case, killing innocent citizens at day, when we can check them at night, is helping the mafia.

I hope that you are aware that such subjective probability is meaningless to prove any serious point whatsoever. A flawed subjective probability at that: even in your own terms, your probability should be 2/5 minimum (the case of the smallest majority, two mafias, trying to kill STM1993), which is still kinda low.

See, for example, now you look suspicious to me, because you bandwagoned Ramond's vote trying to pass up that nonsense as reasons. But still, I won't vote against you right now because we have a Cop that can check you in the next night, and that way, we don't have to risk killing another citizen.

Still, I'm not sure how the Cop will tell us who is mafia and who is not. If he can't PM people, or talk after he is dead, then he would have to reveal himself somewhen to give us information.

[MangaD]

"It is certain that the mafia will get another free kill"? Regardless the result of day rounds, mafias will keep killing each night, unless Doc gets lucky or the game is over. So "another free kill" doesn't make any sense. In any case, killing innocent citizens at day, when we can check them at night, is helping the mafia.

I hope that you are aware that such subjective probability is meaningless to prove any serious point whatsoever. A flawed subjective probability at that: even in your own terms, your probability should be 2/5 minimum (the case of the smallest majority, two mafias, trying to kill STM1993), which is still kinda low.

See, for example, now you look suspicious to me, because you bandwagoned Ramond's vote trying to pass up that nonsense as reasons. But still, I won't vote against you right now because we have a Cop that can check you in the next night, and that way, we don't have to risk killing another citizen.

Still, I'm not sure how the Cop will tell us who is mafia and who is not. If he can't PM people, or talk after he is dead, then he would have to reveal himself somewhen to give us information.

By free kill I meant the Mafia will be making progress, while we won't (aside from the cop, who will get killed if he talks too much anyway). But you got a valid point which I was overlooking.

If we are unlucky we lose 2 good guys, one of them could be the cop, and if we are lucky one of them could be the mafia, and so by the next day we would know the identities of 2 more people (the guy lynched and the guy killed), and by that time the cop would have made 2 guesses. It would make the game faster for good (low probability) or for evil (high probability). I guess I was being selfish judging you so fast.

But if we do not lynch, by that time the cop would have made 2 guesses as well, and only 1 person would get killed, but we would only get to know the identity of that 1 person, and the game would be slower. Still, more opportunity for more people to play and not get thrown out of the game so soon, and more time for the cop to guess.

The best thing that the cop can do, which I had not think of, is first guess who the 2 mafia goons are, and only reveal himself and accuse them when he knows who they both are. If he accuses the first guy he finds right away, then he would die next, and we would still need to guess ourselves who the other 2 are. After revealing the 2 mafia goons he would be useless as a cop, so losing him or a townie afterwards wouldn't matter as his mission would be accomplished.

First time playing this game with more than 1 bad guy, still a bit confusing. =d So yeah, I go for no-lynching as well, since it will give the cop more time and not throw someone out of the game so fast. Guess I don't suspect you so much after all. ^^

I unvote Apocalipsis.

[TheNave]

Still, I'm not sure how the Cop will tell us who is mafia and who is not. If he can't PM people, or talk after he is dead, then he would have to reveal himself somewhen to give us information.

he would probably do it like ramond and just accuse him without any reason... buuut I know the way ramond plays and doing some random accusations without reason is typical for him so I doubt he's the cop

so far I'm thinking about EF and Ramond as possible mafias
I did do the no-lynch-suggestion that other round to lure out anti-townies but in this game when we actually have so many players and a cop that strategy is pretty viable to follow

I'll agree on the no-lynch for now but might possibly switch later this day phase when other people post stuff


Edit:
@MangaD
wow, I'm shocked you put me on your "would kill a first-timer" list... I was really excited to play along with STM