05-17-2011, 10:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-17-2011, 11:02 PM by Apocalipsis.)
Regardless of Divisor's checking, there is a problem. Our options are:
-Try to kill the normal mafia (or kill the normal mafia, if we count with Sheriff's information)
-Try to kill the godfather
At first I thought that we should do the obvious and kill the mafia, then I was inclined to think that we should try to get the godfather first. But after thinking carefully it's the same (you may have to read this twice, it's kinda confusing):
The only difference between trying to kill the normal mafia and godfather is that if we fail, we put either the whole game on the doctor/trapper's hands, respectively.
If you still want to decide who to kill:
Nave has 50% chances of being godfather (he is doctor or godfather), while Empirefantasy and Blow Fly have 33% each (they are doctor, mafia or godfather).
So yeah, who do you want to kill?
Edit:
Oh, in my opinion, I think we should kill Empirefantasy, as he doesn't have any evidence (not even false evidence) to prove he's doctor. Also, chances of him being normal mafia are higher, so probably the Doctor will be the one with pressure on his head this night, and not me :p
-Try to kill the normal mafia (or kill the normal mafia, if we count with Sheriff's information)
-Try to kill the godfather
At first I thought that we should do the obvious and kill the mafia, then I was inclined to think that we should try to get the godfather first. But after thinking carefully it's the same (you may have to read this twice, it's kinda confusing):
- If we try to kill the godfather now (chances of winning: 66%):
- 50% chances of suceed: We kill the exposed normal mafia (by the sheriff) in the next day round and every mafia is dead. 100% chances of winning.
- 50% chances of fail: Doctor is dead. Mafia and Godfather are revealed and ratio is 2:3 in day round (33% chances of winning):
- 33% chances of trapping this night: Godfather is not dead but citiziens alive are enough to kill him in next day round, we win. 100% chances of winning.
- 66% chances of failing this night: Ratio is 2:2 in day round and we lose. 0% chances of winning.
- 33% chances of trapping this night: Godfather is not dead but citiziens alive are enough to kill him in next day round, we win. 100% chances of winning.
- 50% chances of suceed: We kill the exposed normal mafia (by the sheriff) in the next day round and every mafia is dead. 100% chances of winning.
- If we kill the normal mafia now (chances of winning: 66%):
- 33% chances of healing this night: 1:4, even if we fail and kill the doctor in next day round we still win. 100% chances of winning.
- 66% chances of failing this night: 1:3, then we have to try to get the godfather (50% chances of winning) :
- 50% chances of suceed: We win. 100% chances of winning.
- 50% chances of fail: If we fail: ratios is 1:2, doctor is dead and night kill is secure: 1:1. We lose. 0% chances of winning.
- 50% chances of suceed: We win. 100% chances of winning.
- 33% chances of healing this night: 1:4, even if we fail and kill the doctor in next day round we still win. 100% chances of winning.
The only difference between trying to kill the normal mafia and godfather is that if we fail, we put either the whole game on the doctor/trapper's hands, respectively.
If you still want to decide who to kill:
Nave has 50% chances of being godfather (he is doctor or godfather), while Empirefantasy and Blow Fly have 33% each (they are doctor, mafia or godfather).
So yeah, who do you want to kill?
Edit:
Oh, in my opinion, I think we should kill Empirefantasy, as he doesn't have any evidence (not even false evidence) to prove he's doctor. Also, chances of him being normal mafia are higher, so probably the Doctor will be the one with pressure on his head this night, and not me :p