[Serious Discussion]2012: Destiny of the Earth

[Silverthorn]

Anything else I forgot? Don't know.

war

Knew I forgot something!

Okay, time to analyzed some possible scenarios.

Unlike threat of WW3:
Africa: I think we can all agree that any war on the african continent will not cause a chain-reaction. Looking at the past and present, there are so many armed conflicts around there and yet, except for the occasional UN-troops, nobody else interferes.

Americas: Both North and South America are comparably stable. Some countries more stable than the other but nothing threatening.

South-East Asia + Oceania: Pretty much the same as America.

Europe: SWITZERLAND IS GONNA NUKE US ALL! Of course they don't but I kind of like Switzerland :p
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Medium threat of WW3:
North Korea: That country is probably the most random nation I have ever seen. Today, they celebrate their country's founder, tomorrow, they launch a rocket (which crashlands). Almost half of their population is in the army (1 million in active duty, another 8 million in reserve), totalling in a sum of active soldiers which places them on rank 4 of the largest armies (right behind China, USA, and India). Therefore, whilst they might not have the best army (most of their equipment is still from the 60's and 70's thanks to Soviet Russia), they have a mass. And this is where the problems kick in. Up to today, North and South Korea haven't signed a peace-treaty, so, formally, they're still at war. I can imagine the following scenario:
- North Korea invades South Korea in a surprise-rush
- China & Russia disapprove of NK's actions, USA will either formally request UN-troops to be sent over there or directly interfere with SK being an ally. Japan will probably go for the UN-version to protect themselves.
- Whilst China and NK both have communist regimes, I doubt that China will aid NK in the war as their diplomatic state could certainly be better.
- NK does possess nuclear weapons, but obviously they lack the equipment to put them to good use. They could either blow up themselves or, rather unlikely, manage to bring them accross the border.
--> North Korean troops will eventually get fought back. If NK will continue to exist or not is a different story.
It is highly doubtful that NK goes into the other direction and invades China. They'd stand no chance, no matter what.
==> Possibly heated conflict but no immediate risk of a larger-scaled war.

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High threat of WW3:
Middle East: Iran is, according to Israel, producing nuclear weapons. Israel, a nuclearly equipped nation itself, is not particularly fond of it and has threatened Iran to go into war. So, here is a possible course of events that things could take:
- Israel declares war on Iran and begins to invade the country
- Iran fights back and, to put pressure on the other nations to start interfering, puts sea-mines into the Strait of Hormus, a strategic place where a large portion of oil tankers passes through.
- Oil and ultimate gas prices explode.
- USA declares this as an attack on their economy and sends troops into the region to help Israel (they both are fairly connected in regards to diplomacy, it's just a matter of time until they start interfering).
- Saudi Arabia, being a close ally to the US and pretty hateful against Iran will join in, either with military means or, by sending additional oil to USA.
- Britain, being the best partner of the USA in this matter, will fight alongside the US.
- EU (aka. the nations that belong to the EU) will have some serious talk with GB; they will unlikely directly fight along any party but rather try to stabilize the region after the conflict is over. The war has gotten so far that diplomacy will not help anymore.
- Lebanon will, most likely, join in as they do have good connections to Iran. They're located right next to Israel, so you can guess what they're going for.
- China, although just having economical aspects in mind, is somewhat allied with Iran as well (oh the oil). They, alongside with Russia, will ask the UN to make them stop the actions currently taken in the area. If they don't come to a resolution, an armed conflict might ensue.
--> USA/GB vs. China/Russia: Every nation knows that everybody possesses enough nuclear weapons to cover the entire world in them. I highly doubt that each one would want to drop the first bomb (as they'd ultimately become the guilty ones (unless they win, then nobody cares)). This results in a situation similar to the Korean war in the 50's. The powerful nations help some small ones but do not directly take part to avoid a big conflict.
==> This is rather going to become a "Cold War 2" instead of "World War 3".
- Switzerland is going to finish them all. (I do love them :p)


Again, that's just my personal opinion. Additionally, I refrained from inserting many "would've/could've/should've" and "maybe/perhaps". This is all a possible scenario but it's only one of many. It could also stay on a diplomatic level.