RaMafia (round 1 - end)

[MangaD]

Well, at least they didn't got the Doctor/Cop.

I'll go with no-killing this time, because we have way more players than last round (less chances of getting mafias by sheer luck), more mafias than last round (they'll vote knowing each other) and we have a Cop.

Yes, we can say that we were very lucky actually. Considering that someone had to die, it is great that they only got a townie. Pity for STM1993 though... dying before having the chance to even participate, especially since it was his first game...

Okay, let's analyze the (dis)advantages of no-killing. If, hypothetically speaking, no one gets lynched this round, then it is certain that the mafia will get another free kill. We were lucky this time, who is to say that the Cop/Doctor won't be next?

However, if we try to guess who the mafia are and lynch someone, considering the sheer probabilities, our chance of getting one of the culprits is 3/11. Yes, not much indeed. However, we are not playing based on sheer probabilities, are we? We know that at least 2 mafias voted to kill STM1993 in order for the kill to have effect, so we can assume they were in accordance taking this decision. Now, who would decide to kill a guy that is just participating at this game for the first time? Honestly, I can think of many people who wouldn't do this, leaving the people which I don't know very well to be my primary suspects.

These people are:

• TheNave - Cunning guy, I've seen what you are capable of!
  
• Hellbalzer - No comment, you guys understand.
  
• AmadisLFE - I don't know you very well, no idea if you would do this or not.
  
• empirefantasy - Also don't know you that well.
  
• Apocalipsis - Keep reading to know why I suspect you.
  

See, judging just by 1 unjust kill and the little (or nothing) that I know you guys, I've narrowed my list of suspects to 5 people. So, to me, the probabilities of lynching a mafia guy are 3/5. Of course, this is my view and I can be very very wrong on this. Still, just wanting to prove that the probabilities of getting 1 mafia guy are not as low as you think.

Conclusion: Due to such a flawed logic from Apocalipsis, I vote to lynch Apocalipsis.

PS: If I die next night, please take into consideration the guys on my list! Thanks.