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05-19-2015, 06:01 PM
"It is certain that the mafia will get another free kill"? Regardless the result of day rounds, mafias will keep killing each night, unless Doc gets lucky or the game is over. So "another free kill" doesn't make any sense. In any case, killing innocent citizens at day, when we can check them at night, is helping the mafia.
I hope that you are aware that such subjective probability is meaningless to prove any serious point whatsoever. A flawed subjective probability at that: even in your own terms, your probability should be 2/5 minimum (the case of the smallest majority, two mafias, trying to kill STM1993), which is still kinda low.
See, for example, now you look suspicious to me, because you bandwagoned Ramond's vote trying to pass up that nonsense as reasons. But still, I won't vote against you right now because we have a Cop that can check you in the next night, and that way, we don't have to risk killing another citizen.
Still, I'm not sure how the Cop will tell us who is mafia and who is not. If he can't PM people, or talk after he is dead, then he would have to reveal himself somewhen to give us information.
I hope that you are aware that such subjective probability is meaningless to prove any serious point whatsoever. A flawed subjective probability at that: even in your own terms, your probability should be 2/5 minimum (the case of the smallest majority, two mafias, trying to kill STM1993), which is still kinda low.
See, for example, now you look suspicious to me, because you bandwagoned Ramond's vote trying to pass up that nonsense as reasons. But still, I won't vote against you right now because we have a Cop that can check you in the next night, and that way, we don't have to risk killing another citizen.
Still, I'm not sure how the Cop will tell us who is mafia and who is not. If he can't PM people, or talk after he is dead, then he would have to reveal himself somewhen to give us information.