RaMafia (round 1 - end)

[A-Man]

Wow, you took so long to admit it. So, you suspect me for forging a PM with the intention of discrediting yours, which I did not make clear right away just to see your reactions, but even before you reacted I had already hinted it was a fake. And now I guess you expect me to not suspect you, who forged a PM against a random member and kept it as a lie for a whole day phase?

It's never too late, and what makes the whole difference is that I admitted before I was caught. Your case and my case are waay different, for you were caught red handed. I am either too stupid to have understood your "hint", or that's some lame excuse you came up with on the fly.

You can't escape it.

That is bs. Last game guess who suggested the no-lynch? The cop. Guess who found a Mafia on the next night? The cop. The only reason he got killed on that night is because his reasoning during the day was too much cop-sided. I could smell his cop uniform from miles away.

Right now there is little basis to start accusing someone for real. The town-mafia ratio is 8-4 (counting the thug), the chances of lynching someone innocent are way higher. So no-lynching is the wisest thing to do. It is what I would like to say. But no, I cannot let pass someone who appeals for death so early in the game (like I-mafia did last game).

4/12 = 1/3 is the chance we lynch someone right. If we don't lynch anyone, next round when the mafia kill someone, it becomes either 4/11 or 3/11 depending on whether it was a thug or not. Then comes our lynching phase, with the chance becoming 4/11 if the mafia killed a citizen or 3/11 if they killed a thug which is not very different from what we had earlier. The probability distributes so much that I doubt there is much significance in lynching first round or later (one can try writing a script which simulates the game and write down the results). What I can intuitively tell is that the chances the mafia kill us is much higher if we just calculate with numbers.

I am also inclined to believe one of them is Mafia (and much more inclined to A-Man right now). So lynching one of them is a way to find out which one is Mafia and which one is not, right?

And a great way to screw up the civilians chances if these 2 turn out to be citizens.

Your basic logic has a war elephant big flaw before even beginning: following the leads that have no proof behind them. Anyone can send any pm to everyone, and you cant take anything seriously.

Proofs seldom pop up without searching for them. I can take everything seriously. Nobody listens to you in court when you say you weren't serious when you threatened a culprit of murder by death before.

Monks do not reason. Monks only persuade and convert. All your reasoning is based on Luti having fun.

Reread the FAQ, Q1 specifically.

Basing opinions on all sorts of can2t be taken seriously stuff, accusing accordingly as if it has some consistent sense. Luti could be mafia and do all that stuff to pleasure himself. Luti could be citizen, could do all those too just to pleasure himself. Bringing color and fun to the game shouldn't really affect your clear decision making abilities.

Could be, could be, could be. But it may be that it couldn't be too.

Answers to mfc's FAQ Answers (Click to View)

Q-But Luti could've been doing it for fun or "for the lulz", couldn't he?
A-We're all playing this game for the fun or the "lulz" too.
MFC-Thus you can't take anything seriously and base stuff over it.
A-Or you can take everything seriously and base everything over it. That's what I am doing.

Q-But maybe you're the mafia! Right?
A-I will just say I am not. But you're free to think otherwise as long as you come up with a reason.
MFC-Reasons sometimes have to be kept under the carpet.
A-Yes, when they don't make sense.

Q-But you lied before, why should I trust you now?
A-It's up to you, really. If you think I've made sense, then vote LutiChris. If not, then feel free to choose to lynch me or anyone else.
MFC-Even the most trustable person can sometimes say lies. This is why you don't trust anyone.
A-Unless I am foolish enough to trust someone completely. Personally, I like to keep it at 99.9%.

Q-Are you sure LutiChris is a Mafia or one siding them?
A-No, no one is sure. This is just an educated guess, like any other statement in this thread. A wise man once said:

That is a pointless statement everyone knows nothing is 100% guaranteed when it comes to this game. Aside from Ramond having the last word.

MFC-Oh this. I have answered this quote 2 times already, won't bother anymore.
A-You didn't answer anything. You just referenced it for yourself to show that you don't trust what I say.