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Classic Mafia - Conclusion!
03-01-2016, 10:20 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2016, 10:28 PM by Apocalipsis.)
My list (Click to View)
If we assume that the roles were assigned at random, would it be correct to say that there are 23.08% chances of five citizens appearing on the top of the list?
(11/14)*(10/13)*(9/12)*(8/11)*(7/10) = 0.2308
Because from my point of view, and if I assume that Darl is innocent, that would mean that Bamboori has 76.92% chances of being mafia.
I know it may sound crazy to use this as a guide, but I implicitly use this probabilities to rule out suspects sometimes. For example, would you find it likely for all the mafias to be next to each other in this list (Jernemies, Luti and mfc; or Luti, mfc and Ramond)? I wouldn't.
I withdraw my vote from Luti for now.
Edit:
LutiChris Wrote:honestly this looks like you made this up on the fly and feels like what Ramond said was true.
If you find it reasonable, though, you should consider using this after I die and you see that I'm just a citizen.