Classic Mafia - Conclusion!

[Ramond]

somebody didn't pay attention at stochastic classes... the probability of three mafias to be next to each other (f.e. jernemies, luti, mfc) is exactly the same as the one for three mafias to be at any other given three positions (f.e. Bamboori, mfc, Simoneon)
it's the same as, if I roll a dice and got a six three times in a row, is it more likely for me to get a fourth six than getting a three? no, it's not, the probability of both is 1/6th.

Actually, that's not quite right. Assuming the distribution of roles was uniform, then the percentage is simply the quotient of the favorable cases and the possible cases. I only see 10 ways to distribute 3 'neighboring' Mafias between 12 players, but far more to distribute them not-neighboring. Your die rolling example doesn't fit this case, it's something different since a result can be repeated.

But given the nature of the game and how we don't know how STM distributed the roles (the names are ordered alphabetically, which may have happened after the distribution), I wouldn't really take heed to stochastics anyway. It's a red herring.

EDIT: Right, the total possible amount is 12!/(9!3!) which is 220. Meaning 210 ways to distribute 3 Mafias without all three being next to each other.

EDIT2: Did some editing due to false Maths, but it should be right now.