03-02-2016, 09:50 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-02-2016, 10:34 AM by Apocalipsis.)
I guess this is getting offtopic (Click to View)
Edit 2:
A-Man Wrote:Alright, here is another way that explains how using probability in that way is invalid.
Suppose I say I've made another list on day one of players, but in mine, I made a subtle mistake with the order I wrote the names:
[...]
I just swapped the positions of Ramond with Bamboori. I arrange slots like you did and set a probability there exists a mafia player in each. By this time, I could say that Ramond should be your suspect because he is in Bamboori's place in my list. Now empirefantasyand says that he's written the list with few mistakes, but it was Tornado that was in Bamboori's place this time. But Tornado has been proved to be a civilian, and therefore your calculation is invalid. Now Simon appears and claims that he's made 14!(factorial) lists, and that every name has appeared an equal number of times in Bamboori's place. All of these would negate letting everyone retain their own original no.of.mafias/no.of.players.left probability.
You lost me at the end. Are you talking about the 84/364 or 2/7 probability?