If we lynch a citizen twice, mafia wins, unless the Doc can save someone at night round 1 or 2, or both, but that's unlikely...
If he doesn't get lynched in this round, we either lynch a Townie or the Cop (just considering citiziens being lynched):
- We lynch the Cop: M M T T T D
This gives him just 15% chances of saving someone this night.
- We lynch a Townie: M M T T D C
This gives him just 10% chances of saving someone this night.
I think that most times, mafias play differently from each other. Usually a couple of mafias are active, and other ones are silent, just so no one will make behaviour-conclusions when one of them is killed. However, in a short game such as this one, I also find it likely for both of them to be really active, so they can get away from the early lynchings (which are pretty much the only lynchings we will have).
Subjectively, I have this two groups in mind, the 'active ones' and the 'not-so-active ones':
{TheNave, Ramond, Simoneon} and {LutiChris, empirefantasy, Appendix}.
In my opinion:
Chances of one mafia goon in each group >> Chances of both mafia in 'active ones' group > Chances of both mafia in 'not-so-active ones' group.
Considering the whole thing, this will sound contradictory, but I'm not going to vote against activer players right now because they make the game funnier xD
Instead, I'll go with my theory of "one in each group", and hope to get the inactive goon.
So, voting against
empirefantasy, just because TheNave seems to know something we don't about Appendix.
Still, I'm not discarding the fact that TheNave is a mafia goon, so if Appendix is killed at night and he is revealed to be a special role, I'll vote for him without a doubt.