Classic Mafia - Conclusion!

[Ramond]

I deliberately avoided using specific percentages with the current situation, I know about conditional probability. I just find that this isn't the right way to approach this.

[Apocalipsis]

Oh, I thought he was considering the current results as facts, and that it would only be correct to use 2/7.

Edit:
In any case, if you think that I'm mafia just because of this... this will turn out badly.

Voting Bamboori.

[A-Man]

I was actually waiting for your answer xD

lol, predictable me.

Is it that bad to decide using the a priori probability of having a mafia there at the start of the game?

It's not bad, it just that this alone shouldn't make Bamboori any more likely to be a mafia. The probability of the beginning of the game has broken down to what's current and shouldn't be used as an implication to anything. In one branch of physics, everything is considered to be probabilistic. You do measurements like that all the time and it's known that a particle's "wave function"(possible states) collapses (narrows down to a fact) when you apply a measurement to it. Once the facts have been established, new possibilities emerge and the probabilities should change to fit these facts.

Edit:
Alright, here is another way that explains how using probability in that way is invalid.
Suppose I say I've made another list on day one of players, but in mine, I made a subtle mistake with the order I wrote the names:
1. AmadisLFE
2. Apocalipsis
3. Ramond
4. CosmicSarasa
5. Darl
6. empirefantasy
7. Jernemies
8. LutiChris
9. mfc
10.Bamboori
11.Rhino.Freak
12.Simoneon
13.TheNave
14.T.O.R.N.A.D.O

I just swapped the positions of Ramond with Bamboori. I arrange slots like you did and set a probability there exists a mafia player in each. By this time, I could say that Ramond should be your suspect because he is in Bamboori's place in my list. Now empirefantasyand says that he's written the list with few mistakes, but it was Tornado that was in Bamboori's place this time. But Tornado has been proved to be a civilian, and therefore your calculation is invalid. Now Simon appears and claims that he's made 14!(factorial) lists, and that every name has appeared an equal number of times in Bamboori's place. All of these would negate letting everyone retain their own original no.of.mafias/no.of.players.left probability.

Edit2: lol, seeing my old posts just shows how much this community has influenced me as a person.

Edit: Supposing you're a civilian, everyone is 2/(9-1). 2 is the number of mafia still alive. 9 is the number of players alive.

[Apocalipsis]

I guess this is getting offtopic (Click to View)

Yeah, I remember you said something about that in a thread in the Philosphy, Science and Life sub-forum. I searched for it:

God's existence complies with Quantum Mechanics; that we all needed to be observed to exist. God's existence can serve as the explanation for "what was there" before the universe (our universe can't have always existed because it happens to have what is known as a "thermodynamical arrow time" as one of its properties). Plus, the fact that God exists can make many important implications, especially if a religion's teachings turns out to be true. The definition of the word "pragmatically" can also change from a person to another depending on whether he believes in a religion's teachings or not.

While it sounds really interesting, I don't know anything about that right now, so I'll just have to "ignore" it xD
But I get your point about the probabilities. I had my doubts about it, that's why I explicitly stated (twice) that I didn't know if that was correct.

By the way, searching your posts with the word "God" showed me a weird version of yourself o.o

Edit: And a weird version of me that was discussing about God's existence O:

Edit 2:

Alright, here is another way that explains how using probability in that way is invalid.
Suppose I say I've made another list on day one of players, but in mine, I made a subtle mistake with the order I wrote the names:
[...]
I just swapped the positions of Ramond with Bamboori. I arrange slots like you did and set a probability there exists a mafia player in each. By this time, I could say that Ramond should be your suspect because he is in Bamboori's place in my list. Now empirefantasyand says that he's written the list with few mistakes, but it was Tornado that was in Bamboori's place this time. But Tornado has been proved to be a civilian, and therefore your calculation is invalid. Now Simon appears and claims that he's made 14!(factorial) lists, and that every name has appeared an equal number of times in Bamboori's place. All of these would negate letting everyone retain their own original no.of.mafias/no.of.players.left probability.

You lost me at the end. Are you talking about the 84/364 or 2/7 probability?

[TheNave]

o wow alot of math stuff going on, what I was meaning to say on my post, is that one specific pattern is exactly as likely to occur than another specific patter
F.e.
The order of Mafia and Citizens being distributed like this:
M - M - M - C - C - C - C - C - C - C - C - C - C

Is equally likely to f.e. this:
C - M - C - C - C - C - M - C - C - C - M - C - C


Anyways, still not changing my vote though

[Apocalipsis]

Anyways, still not changing my vote though

Do you really believe I would use this to make a false accusation on someone? There are a lot of better ways to do that, without risking myself this much.

I don't know if you noticed, but I try to be a lot more cautious when I play as mafia, since I'm not that eager for information about the roles. Check the last game before RaMafia Special, I was mafia in that one.

Edit:

Supposing you're a civilian, everyone is 2/(9-1). 2 is the number of mafia still alive. 9 is the number of players alive.

My mistake, I don't know why I said 7.

Edit2: I remember now, I was assuming Darl is citizen too (I know, he may still be the godfather).

[Bamboori]

how great that i am also a maths genius. oh wait. i failed the exam two times.

voting for apoc for now so i wont get lynched, im open to change my vote if we get other suspects.
edit: also guys. i already have problems keeping up with all the psychology and theories, and now maths?

[Darl]

Bamboori

[Apocalipsis]

I'll go to sleep now.

I cannot stop you from lynching me. I thought that maybe it would be a good idea to claim to be the Doctor to remain alive, but in the end it would only make the Doctor appear for nothing, and that's even worse than a Townie dying.

My suspects right now: Bamboori/Nave/Ramond.

By the way Nave, after I die, don't say this is my fault for saying something stupid. For some reason you and Ramond voted me out of the blue, so this will be your responsibility.

[TheNave]

So why are you going for Bamboori now? Imo the only way of winning is to lynch the top three suspects of the list, as in Apocalypsis, Simoneon and LutiChris... lynching anyone else will always go in the favour of mafia