Classic Mafia - Conclusion!

[STM1993]

Thanks for the bump mfc!

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Classic Mafia - Day 4
Satisfied with their meal, the townsfolk heartily went to bed, nearly forgetting the crisis that had befallen them...

An explosion, shattered glass, followed by a scream. The town awoke to the commotion in the middle of the night. They had originated from a mansion belonging to one of the town's nobles.

One of the windows in the mansion was broken into by a powerful force. As the townsfolk reached closer, they could smell a familiar scent. They bolted into the room at once.

There lied the body of a noble gleaming in the moonlight, covered by a pool of his blood, surrounded by shards of glass.

The unmistakable smell of tobacco and luscious golden hair could only be Simoneon, killed by a concussive blast through the window.
(click picture for bgm)

Simoneon, a Town Citizen, has been slain tonight.

Town/Mafia Ratio is 5:2

List of Players (Click to View)

1. AmadisLFE - Citizen (tripped on his own sword in Day 2)
2. Apocalipsis
3. Bamboori
4. CosmicSarasa - Citizen (hugged by Mafia in Night 1)
5. Darl
6. empirefantasy
7. Jernemies
8. LutiChris - Citizen (boiled for frog leg soup in Day 3)
9. mfc - Mafia Goon (ravaged by Town's cat mascot in Day 1)
10. Ramond
11. Rhino.Freak - Town Cop (harpooned by Mafia in Night 2)
12. Simoneon - Citizen (blasted by Mafia in Night 3)
13. TheNave
14. T.O.R.N.A.D.O - Citizen (stabbed by Mafia in Night 0)

Specific Game Rules (Click to View)

1. Public Discussion on this thread is allowed both Day & Night.
   
2. Town players are NOT allowed to privately converse with any other player. All discussions must take place in the thread.
   
3. Mafia players are allowed to privately converse with each other as long as they are alive, and ONLY with each other.
   
4. Dead players cannot discuss with other players who are still participating. They are of course, free to privately speak to other dead players.
   
5. Please do NOT delete your own posts. It is not fair for only moderators to be able to see them.
   
6. Avoid editing posts to contain completely different information from the original. Players are encouraged to quote the player they are replying to.
   
7. Do NOT post screenshots or quote messages that are supposedly from the Game Master.
   
8. Breaking any of these rules will result in an individual punishment that usually ends up being really bad for the faction of the player that cheated.
   
9. The Game Master can force a deadline if a phase is taking too long to end.
   
10. The Game Master's word is final.

Day phase has begun!

Please remember to bold the name of the person you wish to lynch in the day. Makes things a lot easier.

[Ramond]

Bamboori.

[Darl]

Bamboori

[TheNave]

1. Apocalipsis - AmadisLFE, mfc, AmadisLFE, LutiChris, Bamboori
2. Bamboori - mfc, AmadisLFE, Apocalipsis, LutiChris
3. Darl - mfc, AmadisLFE, Bamboori, LutiChris
4. empirefantasy - mfc, Bamboori, LutiChris
5. Jernemies - LutiChris, Apocalipsis
6. Ramond - Rhino.Freak, LutiCrhis, TheNave, LutiChris, Apocalipsis, Bamboori

Okay, after calming down I went through the thread again and made a list of all the votes so far (for the players that are still alive)

Let's analyze it and see which pair of players never voted for eachother:
Apocalipsis - Darl
Apocalipsis - empirefantasy
Bamboori - Jernemies
Darl - empirefantasy
Darl - Jernemies
Darl - Ramond
empirefantasy - Jernemies
empirefantasy - Ramond
Jernemies - Ramond

Now those are all the possible pairs regarding the votes... let's narrow it down a bit...
In my opinion empirefantasy is innocent. He did miss multiple nightphases, I always checked the last visit timers as soon as a Day phase begins, you can belive me on this one or not but in my eyes I consider it impossible for him to have a role that requires night activity... so let's remove all the pairs with empirefantasy's name

Apocalipsis - Darl
Apocalipsis - empirefantasy
Bamboori - Jernemies
Darl - empirefantasy
Darl - Jernemies
Darl - Ramond
empirefantasy - Jernemies
empirefantasy - Ramond
Jernemies - Ramond

now what we have left is the following list of possible mafia pairs:
Apocalipsis - Darl
Bamboori - Jernemies
Darl - Jernemies
Darl - Ramond
Jernemies - Ramond

Now let's see the possible partners for each of those players:
Apocalipsis - Darl
Bamboori - Jernemies
Jernemies - Bamboori, Darl, Ramond
Ramond - Darl, Jernemies
Darl - Apocalipsis, Jernemies, Ramond


Now as you can see, Darl and Jernemies have the most possible partners, which is expected because Darl was checked by the Cop and rarely voted on from that point in the game and Jernemies was mostly lurking and didn't interact alot at all...

Now, IF we were to kill Darl or Jernemies, the list would change depending on the outcome:


Let's assume Darl was mafia:

Then that would mean the last remaining mafia must be Apocalipsis, Jernemies or Ramond... Bamboori must be citizen then


Let's assume Darl was citizen:

That means all the pairs with darl would be removed from the list:
Apocalipsis - Darl
Bamboori - Jernemies
Jernemies - Bamboori, Darl, Ramond
Ramond - Darl, Jernemies
Darl - Apocalipsis, Jernemies, Ramond

which would leave us with two last possible pairs:
Bamboori and Jernemies
OR
Ramond and Jernemies


Let's assume Jernemies was mafia:

Then that would mean the last remaining mafia must be Bamboori, Darl or Ramond... Apocalipsis must be citizen then


Let's assume Jernemies was citizen:

That means all the pairs with Jernemies would be removed from the list:
Apocalipsis - Darl
Bamboori - Jernemies
Jernemies - Bamboori, Darl, Ramond
Ramond - Darl, Jernemies
Darl - Apocalipsis, Jernemies, Ramond

which would leave us with two last possible pairs:
Apocalipsis - Darl
OR
Ramond - Darl


Now the three strategies we can follow are:
1. Kill Darl, his death would reveal alot
2. Kill Jernemies, his death would reveal equally much
3. Go for one of the possible partners (Bamboori, Apoc, Rmond) aka pretty much Random Vote


Now, for me the choice is obvious, either Darl or Jernemies, and Darl did get checked by Rhino so if I have to decide between those two I'd obviously go for Jernemies


@LutiChris
hey look I'm actually following your advice even though I came up with this stuff myself... but yes now I do agree Jernemies - Bamboori is a valid pair

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Additonal reasons to vote for Jernemies:
1. He did NOT vote for mfc
2. He did NOT die this night! There was no suspicion on Jernemies AND he's not active at all, this is usually the most likely kind of player mafia is going for IF he was citizen, obviously mafia cannot go for Jernemies if he's Mafia and thus went for Simoneon


Also, here's a TL;DR:

Jernemies = Godfather -> We got a mafia member + Apocalipsis is confirmed citizen + Darl is confirmed citizen
Jernemies = Mafia Goon -> We got a mafia member + Apocalipsis is confirmed citizen
Jernemies = Citizen -> Darl confirmed Godfather + Remaining Mafia must be either Apocalipsis or Ramond

[empirefantasy]

duh the game is so messy. very hard to understand. i will go with nave resolution and vote for jeremies and i highly doubt that if he turns to be mafia the second is bambori.

yea i missed night rounds coz i dont have night role and so i don't check lfe when the night start, which in fact is not that much time, nights are processing quick.

[Apocalipsis]

This reason is considerably better than last day, but I have some concerns about it:
1. You didn't consider the pairs in which you're mafia. It's obvious why you did it, and it's ok if you want to explain why you vote someone, but you shouldn't be able to convince us to vote that player just because of that. Each one of us would have to use the same method, from our point of view.
2. It assumes that Mafias won't vote for each other. While this is mostly true in critical situations (like the past day), it's not a safe bet. Apart from the typical mafia-lynching-mafia strategy, we should consider that when the lynch is 'decided', a vote thrown to a player that is not going to be lynched has much less weight.
3. It considers votes that were changed before the day end. In my opinion, and for obvious reasons, these votes are almost meaningless.
4. It's only useful if you assume that empirefantasy is innocent.

That being said, I'm curious about what will come up if I use that method. (Click to View)

Considering only final votes against players alive (except me) gave me this, which is almost useless:
1. Bamboori: -
2. Darl: -
3. Empirefantasy: -
4. Jernemies: -
5. Ramond: Bamboori
6. Nave: -

If I want to do what Nave did, I'll have to consider non-final votes to rule out possible mafia pairs.
For example, if Simoneon were to be still alive, I would have to rule out a Simoneon/Nave mafia pair because of this (follow the quote to see the context):

what a coincidence you apear right as the night ends Ramond ^.-

Simoneon btw

I guess you understand by now that I consider what's coming next, still almost useless.
Considering non-final votes too gave me this (correct me if it's wrong, maybe I missed votes):
1. Bamboori: -
2. Darl: Bamboori
3. Empirefantasy: Bamboori
4. Jernemies: -
5. Ramond: Nave/Bamboori
6. Nave: Ramond

Bamboori - Darl
Bamboori - Empirefantasy
Bamboori - Jernemies
Bamboori - Ramond
Bamboori - Nave
Darl - Empirefantasy
Darl - Jernemies
Darl - Ramond
Darl - Nave
Empirefantasy - Jernemies
Empirefantasy - Ramond
Empirefantasy - Nave
Jernemies - Ramond
Jernemies - Nave
Ramond - Nave

If I have to narrow this somehow to make it more useful (...), I'll assume that Darl is innocent, and not only because he's been checked. Then the possible partners of each player are:
Bamboori: Jernemies, Nave
Empirefantasy: Jernemies, Ramond, Nave
Jernemies: Bamboori, Empirefantasy, Ramond, Nave
Ramond: Empirefantasy, Jernemies
Nave: Bamboori, Empirefantasy, Jernemies

This isn't as conclusive as Nave's result. According to his method, from my point of view (considering non-final votes and that Darl is innocent) we would have to kill at least two players to infer that others are innocent.

If I also assume that empirefantasy is innocent (because of the inactivity during nights), then it would be different:
Bamboori: Jernemies, Nave
Jernemies: Bamboori, Ramond, Nave
Ramond: Jernemies
Nave: Bamboori, Jernemies

You can try to think about possible scenarios with this list. Honestly, with so many assumptions about the method being used (Mafias never not voting against each other) and some players innocence (Darl, Empirefantasy), I won't gave much weight to this.

I'll vote Bamboori again (yes, I'm stubborn). I have stated some underlying reasons when I was about to die, and I still want to know his role. The fact that Nave and Jernemies were 'dead set' on me last day (Nave changed his vote to Luti when left with no other option), makes me think that one of them has to be Bamboori's partner, if Bamboori ends up being mafia.

@TheNave

well, whatever you do, even if you lynch me... this is my SAFELIST! Players on that list are extremly unlikely mafia:
- @empirefantasy
- @Jernemies

This is my, "could have tricked me but most likely innocent aswell"-list
- @Darl
- @Ramond
- @Bamboori

And here my, "most likely two out of those three are mafia"-list:
- @Apocalipsis
- @Simoneon
- @LutiChris

While looking through the thread I found this. I know a lot of things happened since you posted this, but I find it weird that you're now voting someone from your safelist, and not someone from the "most likely mafia"-list (me) or from the "could have tricked me"-list (Ramond, Bamboori).

But you already stated your reasons to do so, I guess. Maybe you can update the list?

[Ramond]

Yeah, pretty sure it's Nave and Bamboori. Nave has been a little contradictory lately.

[TheNave]

@Apocalipsis
yes alot of things happened and I do admit that first list was wrong... I assume it's either Jernemies + Bamboori or Jernemies + Ramond now... so changing my vote to Bamboori should be fine considering you're voting for him anyways

EDIT:
On a side not, I saw Bamboori checking this forum section a few hours ago but he didn't reply... probably has to discuss with jernemies first

@Ramond
not contradictory, just changed my mind a few times, it is a very complex round afterall

[Bamboori]

welp.
I guess I'll vote for Jernemies.

[empirefantasy]

@bambori
reason?
or just to save yourself?